Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
